Bob_Jacobs

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

3.429	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
87.141	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
73.179	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
61.654	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
51.457	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
51.120	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
49.363	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
48.297	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
48.212	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
46.771	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
45.458	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
44.042	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
40.388	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
35.399	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
33.558	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
32.767	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
32.529	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
32.332	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
31.613	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
30.971	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
30.742	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
30.611	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
29.766	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
28.745	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
28.471	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
28.448	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
27.472	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
27.235	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
26.799	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
25.988	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
25.497	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
24.920	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
24.909	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
24.712	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
24.522	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
23.701	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
22.628	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
22.337	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
21.437	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
20.860	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
20.468	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
20.431	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
19.541	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
18.852	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
18.630	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
18.306	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
18.283	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
17.888	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
17.222	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
16.670	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
16.116	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
15.871	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
15.650	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
15.620	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
15.426	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
15.268	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
15.215	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
15.024	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
14.781	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
14.223	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
13.962	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
13.648	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
13.269	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
12.991	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
12.976	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
12.966	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
12.745	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
12.702	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
12.220	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
12.128	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
11.540	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
11.150	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
10.533	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
10.498	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
10.304	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
10.261	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
10.081	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
9.763	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
9.663	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
9.657	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
9.657	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
9.334	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
9.301	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
9.236	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
9.150	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
8.586	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
8.458	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
8.233	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
8.203	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
8.084	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
8.000	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
7.880	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
7.846	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
7.367	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
7.283	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
7.202	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
7.105	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
7.013	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
6.953	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
6.895	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
6.843	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
6.753	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
6.717	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
6.664	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
6.565	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
6.511	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
6.348	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
6.263	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
6.259	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
5.952	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
5.932	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
5.916	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
5.875	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
5.846	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
5.783	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
5.766	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
5.742	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
5.698	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
5.621	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
5.617	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.585	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.408	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.344	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
5.292	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
5.159	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
5.106	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
5.068	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
5.052	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
4.988	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
4.859	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
4.846	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
4.816	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
4.685	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
4.632	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
4.591	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
4.569	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
4.563	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
4.526	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
4.433	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
4.419	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
4.402	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
4.393	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.347	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
4.266	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
4.162	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
4.122	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
4.093	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
4.035	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
4.027	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
3.928	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
3.892	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
3.891	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
3.824	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
3.764	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.676	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
3.667	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
3.579	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
3.539	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
3.529	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
3.510	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
3.496	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
3.423	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.389	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
3.338	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
3.295	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
3.265	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
3.265	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
3.258	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
3.198	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
3.150	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
3.113	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
3.071	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
3.045	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
2.820	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
2.798	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
2.703	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
2.699	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
2.597	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
2.576	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
2.550	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
2.530	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
2.522	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
2.509	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
2.490	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
2.357	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
2.352	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
2.302	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
2.297	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
2.233	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
2.215	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
2.211	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
2.166	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
2.035	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
1.937	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
1.913	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
1.904	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
1.901	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
1.875	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
1.874	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
1.822	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
1.768	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
1.742	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
1.731	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
1.679	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
1.469	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
1.375	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
1.343	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
1.303	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
1.209	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
1.185	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
1.157	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
1.138	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
1.132	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
1.119	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
1.028	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
0.938	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
0.843	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.799	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
0.798	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
0.757	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
0.704	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
0.691	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
0.649	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
0.646	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
0.470	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
0.434	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
0.411	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
0.396	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
0.377	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
0.369	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
0.248	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
0.209	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
0.165	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.131	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.130	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
0.111	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
0.105	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
0.048	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
0.029	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
-0.030	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-0.112	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-0.115	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-0.146	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-0.148	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-0.179	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-0.247	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
-0.273	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-0.385	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
-0.462	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
-0.493	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
-0.641	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
-0.649	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.774	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.804	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
-0.876	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
-0.959	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
-1.212	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-1.480	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
-1.501	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
-1.536	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
-1.536	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
-1.562	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
-1.569	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-1.651	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
-1.751	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
-2.014	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
-2.190	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
-2.230	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
-2.410	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
-2.702	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
-2.760	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
-2.845	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-2.866	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
-2.983	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-3.009	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-3.042	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-3.045	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
-3.083	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
-3.105	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
-3.299	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
-3.499	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
-3.540	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
-3.663	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
-3.861	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
-3.865	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
-4.043	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
-4.120	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
-4.167	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
-4.241	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-4.326	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
-4.350	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
-4.544	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
-4.553	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
-4.633	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
-4.789	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
-5.332	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
-5.340	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-5.434	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
-5.727	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-5.756	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
-5.851	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
-5.996	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
-6.527	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
-7.158	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-7.506	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
-7.597	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
-7.664	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
-7.714	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-8.018	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
-8.646	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
-8.684	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
-8.782	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
-9.528	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
-9.842	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-9.866	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
-9.868	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
-9.900	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
-10.393	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-10.521	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-10.624	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
-10.713	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
-10.814	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
-11.063	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
-11.472	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
-12.051	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
-12.160	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
-13.250	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
-13.307	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
-13.624	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
-14.263	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
-14.586	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
-17.073	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-17.609	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
-18.863	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
-19.123	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-19.425	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-20.035	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
-25.238	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-25.767	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-26.283	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-26.861	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
-29.107	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-31.490	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
-31.693	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
-34.283	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
-38.364	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
-40.083	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
-43.981	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-69.689	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
-108.934	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
-115.424	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
-141.735	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous