Vang

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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13.41k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
143.664	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
141.118	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
126.607	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
119.631	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
115.031	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
111.984	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
108.957	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
107.204	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
104.342	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
104.153	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
103.332	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
103.220	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
102.935	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
101.662	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
101.346	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
99.461	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
99.255	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
99.191	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
98.195	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
98.138	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
97.500	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
96.761	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
96.214	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
96.038	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
95.418	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
95.121	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
94.970	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
94.732	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
93.936	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
92.967	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
92.513	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
92.463	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
92.381	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
92.235	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
92.185	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
91.854	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
91.763	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
91.609	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
91.578	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
90.490	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
90.195	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
89.874	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
89.793	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
89.591	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
88.062	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
87.703	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
86.274	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
86.262	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
85.847	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
85.820	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
85.665	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
85.081	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
84.954	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
84.136	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
84.102	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
84.056	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
82.681	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
82.542	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
82.523	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
82.343	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
81.858	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
81.198	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
80.988	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
80.470	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
80.151	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
80.048	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
79.936	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
79.921	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
79.841	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
79.447	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
79.328	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
79.316	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
79.116	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
79.073	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
78.129	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
78.016	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
77.734	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
77.576	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
77.517	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
76.874	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
76.717	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
76.450	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
76.426	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
76.317	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
76.141	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
75.979	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
75.495	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
75.450	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
75.169	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
75.164	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
74.566	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
74.409	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
74.216	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
74.045	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
73.925	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
73.426	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
73.298	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
73.264	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
73.019	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
72.833	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
72.729	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
72.623	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
71.932	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
71.643	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
71.612	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
71.578	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
71.515	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
70.435	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
70.229	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
69.511	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
69.407	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
69.163	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
68.939	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
68.845	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
68.265	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
67.846	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
67.692	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
67.385	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
67.232	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
67.193	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
67.143	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
67.071	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
66.780	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
65.908	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
65.863	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
65.832	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
65.627	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
64.544	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
64.488	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
63.896	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
63.887	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
63.701	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
63.162	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
63.101	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
62.693	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
62.411	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
62.111	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
62.040	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
61.836	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
61.668	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
61.545	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
60.942	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
60.802	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
60.561	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
60.363	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
59.798	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
59.710	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
59.430	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
59.390	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
59.340	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
59.186	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
59.149	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
58.121	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
57.657	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
57.449	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
57.253	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
56.959	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
56.900	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
56.824	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
56.794	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
56.407	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
56.293	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
55.988	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
55.942	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
55.912	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
55.657	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
55.399	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
55.387	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
55.372	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
55.314	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
54.553	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
54.528	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
53.865	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
52.518	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
51.831	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
51.809	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
51.701	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
51.370	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
51.112	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
50.798	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
50.529	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
49.779	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
49.522	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
49.471	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
48.989	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
48.667	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
48.313	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
48.085	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
48.080	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
47.992	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
47.953	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
47.591	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
47.115	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
45.788	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
45.725	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
45.608	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
45.331	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
45.215	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
44.917	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
44.151	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
43.960	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
43.854	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
43.802	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
43.710	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
43.442	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
43.303	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
42.640	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
40.827	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
40.293	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
39.832	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
39.810	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
39.572	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
39.432	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
39.178	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
39.069	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
39.018	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
38.850	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
38.432	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
38.204	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
37.536	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
37.451	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
37.443	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
37.373	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
36.815	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
36.564	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
35.866	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
34.327	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
34.150	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
33.423	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
33.180	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
33.009	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
32.964	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
32.329	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
32.116	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
31.691	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
31.459	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
31.378	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
31.357	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
31.037	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
30.800	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
30.583	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
30.314	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
29.522	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
29.451	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
29.275	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
28.550	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
28.002	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
27.689	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
27.639	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
27.607	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
27.373	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
27.119	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
25.906	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
25.426	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
25.292	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
25.287	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
24.469	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
24.426	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
24.348	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
23.229	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
22.895	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
22.695	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
20.800	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
20.639	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
20.600	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
20.253	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
19.937	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
19.671	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
18.907	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
18.625	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
17.890	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
17.408	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
17.362	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
17.263	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
17.134	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
16.217	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
15.783	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
15.223	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
15.117	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
14.882	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
14.560	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
14.502	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
14.347	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
14.203	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
13.585	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
13.539	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
13.505	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
13.199	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
13.125	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
12.732	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
11.864	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
11.586	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
11.247	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
10.321	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
10.205	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
9.644	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
9.256	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
8.934	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
8.419	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
8.013	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
7.913	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
7.401	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
7.123	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
6.784	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
6.563	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
5.571	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
5.546	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
5.295	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
5.186	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
4.660	When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
4.356	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
4.196	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
4.021	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
3.870	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
3.846	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.183	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
2.948	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
2.799	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
1.143	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
0.739	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
0.203	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.007	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
-	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-0.295	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
-0.391	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-0.634	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-1.539	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
-1.806	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-2.373	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-3.411	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-3.524	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
-3.805	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-4.196	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-4.416	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
-6.228	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
-7.202	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
-8.206	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-8.262	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-9.988	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-10.112	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-10.669	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
-11.083	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
-11.102	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-12.468	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
-13.116	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
-13.169	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
-13.622	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
-13.826	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
-15.160	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-15.844	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-18.166	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-18.484	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
-19.056	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-21.734	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-22.285	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-22.522	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-24.893	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-26.451	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-29.375	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
-32.871	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-33.492	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-34.997	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-36.905	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-39.893	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-40.874	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
-41.095	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
-42.165	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-43.215	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
-44.046	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
-45.568	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-46.256	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-46.427	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-46.824	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-48.294	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
-49.938	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
-50.419	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
-50.765	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-51.294	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-58.192	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-59.409	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
-60.277	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-64.511	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-66.258	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-66.362	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-77.743	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-89.589	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-97.887	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-104.115	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
-106.946	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-127.117	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-127.730	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-130.988	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
-131.330	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-132.423	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
-137.022	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-137.618	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-148.052	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-166.617	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-176.284	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-183.326	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-185.803	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
-201.341	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary