JonathanShi

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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12.17k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
212.510	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
188.407	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
163.892	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
154.251	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
148.702	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
146.318	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
133.628	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
133.428	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
128.582	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
128.095	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
127.305	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
125.392	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
119.842	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
116.337	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
113.795	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
113.734	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
110.015	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
109.662	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
107.926	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
106.222	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
103.089	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
102.521	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
100.401	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
99.558	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
99.343	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
97.268	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
95.594	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
95.323	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
95.123	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
94.593	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
94.493	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
91.862	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
91.724	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
90.544	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
89.400	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
88.955	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
88.051	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
87.484	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
86.547	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
86.513	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
86.082	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
85.559	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
84.970	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
84.818	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
83.978	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
83.455	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
82.973	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
81.897	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
81.606	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
81.482	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
81.452	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
81.193	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
81.152	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
80.861	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
80.562	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
80.320	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
79.644	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
79.359	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
79.171	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
79.037	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
78.947	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
78.795	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
78.467	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
78.098	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
77.956	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
77.689	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
77.476	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
77.232	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
76.460	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
75.709	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
74.672	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
74.306	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
72.922	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
72.878	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
72.708	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
72.395	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
72.012	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
71.539	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
71.406	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
71.239	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
70.867	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
70.571	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
70.245	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
70.209	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
68.702	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
68.554	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
68.270	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
67.622	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
67.002	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
66.432	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
65.588	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
65.368	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
65.352	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
65.245	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
64.715	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
64.336	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
63.657	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
63.600	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
63.485	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
62.938	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
62.435	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
61.534	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
60.255	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
59.316	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
59.291	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
59.154	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
58.035	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
57.625	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
57.600	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
55.997	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
55.987	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
55.575	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
54.165	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
53.895	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
53.864	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
53.679	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
53.469	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
53.163	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
53.062	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
52.747	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
52.458	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
51.753	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
51.352	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
51.326	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
51.034	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
51.010	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
50.995	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
50.289	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
49.996	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
49.758	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
49.725	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
49.506	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
49.063	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
49.016	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
48.522	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
48.348	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
47.950	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
47.786	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
47.740	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
47.598	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
47.455	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
47.264	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
46.839	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
46.381	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
46.210	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
46.191	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
45.793	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
45.740	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
45.527	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
45.476	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
45.348	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
44.667	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
44.352	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
43.586	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
43.485	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
42.865	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
42.698	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
42.661	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
42.412	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
42.375	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
42.328	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
42.276	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
42.046	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
39.833	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
38.808	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
37.521	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
37.271	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
37.249	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
35.542	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
35.226	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
35.187	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
35.142	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
34.963	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
34.831	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
34.377	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
33.919	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
33.143	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
32.988	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
32.729	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
32.558	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
32.361	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
32.113	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
31.949	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
31.899	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
30.296	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
30.168	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
30.115	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
29.545	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
29.487	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
29.019	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
28.733	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
28.315	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
28.303	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
28.087	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
27.872	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
27.838	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
27.141	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
26.837	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
26.408	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
25.141	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
25.104	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
24.947	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
24.781	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
24.734	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
24.655	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
24.495	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
24.041	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
23.908	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
23.051	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
22.492	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
22.398	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
22.232	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
21.531	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
21.363	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
21.149	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
21.007	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
20.850	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
20.822	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
20.463	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
20.390	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
20.065	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
19.934	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
19.774	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
19.568	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
19.564	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
19.251	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
19.090	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
18.888	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
18.577	When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
17.656	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
17.284	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
17.161	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
16.623	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
16.566	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
16.499	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
16.238	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
16.079	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
15.290	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
15.054	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
14.669	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
14.644	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
14.612	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
14.531	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
14.336	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
14.327	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
13.885	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
13.706	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
13.542	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
13.200	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
13.143	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
12.843	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
12.146	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
12.019	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
11.917	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
11.658	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
11.532	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
11.052	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
10.991	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
10.045	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
9.580	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
9.168	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
8.218	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
7.912	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
7.584	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
7.448	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
7.421	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
7.414	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
7.407	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
7.295	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
7.045	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
6.609	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
6.426	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
6.363	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
5.626	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
5.449	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
5.177	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
4.868	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
4.663	In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?	Continuous
4.631	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
4.600	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
4.586	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
4.458	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
4.331	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
3.995	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
3.908	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
3.876	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
3.737	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
3.555	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
3.488	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
3.440	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
3.368	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
3.190	When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK?	Continuous
3.142	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
2.852	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
2.806	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
2.627	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
2.303	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
2.055	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
1.798	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
1.636	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
1.335	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
1.189	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
1.060	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
0.827	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
0.749	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
0.669	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
0.595	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
0.504	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
0.460	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
0.366	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
0.306	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
0.273	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
0.236	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
0.215	Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?	Binary
0.157	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
0.120	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.012	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-0.102	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
-1.039	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
-1.046	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-1.225	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
-1.298	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
-1.522	When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-1.769	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
-2.367	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
-2.770	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-2.868	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
-2.940	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-3.869	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
-3.879	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
-3.966	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
-4.390	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
-4.560	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-5.256	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-5.641	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
-6.479	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
-6.901	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-7.188	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
-7.744	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-8.394	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-9.425	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
-9.899	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-10.338	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-10.512	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-11.360	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-11.772	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-13.147	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
-13.173	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
-13.647	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-14.845	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
-18.500	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?	Continuous
-23.262	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-23.790	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-24.472	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
-24.936	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-25.012	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-25.015	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-25.499	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
-25.879	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-27.003	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-27.846	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
-28.828	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
-31.612	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-34.823	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
-34.855	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-35.141	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
-35.960	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
-36.712	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-42.381	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
-43.314	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
-43.865	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
-50.969	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-51.060	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-53.084	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-58.318	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-65.233	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-70.141	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-70.513	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
-73.344	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-75.916	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-91.864	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-97.975	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-99.049	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-103.151	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-106.680	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-110.089	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
-142.589	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-145.664	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
-167.315	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary