datscilly

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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14.6k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
188.753	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
185.511	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
154.784	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
146.417	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
134.214	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
128.408	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
120.715	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
118.698	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
117.536	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
115.709	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
115.197	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
111.381	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
110.853	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
110.778	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
109.613	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
109.314	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
106.608	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
106.445	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
106.205	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
106.034	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
104.877	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
104.440	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
103.712	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
103.173	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
102.040	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
101.424	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
101.379	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
98.268	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
97.683	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
96.916	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
95.671	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
94.720	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
93.999	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
93.726	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
92.470	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
91.813	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
91.565	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
91.476	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
90.901	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
90.102	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
90.090	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
89.707	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
89.227	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
87.067	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
87.018	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
85.587	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
85.227	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
84.677	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
84.448	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
84.324	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
83.903	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
83.419	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
83.277	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
82.397	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
81.005	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
80.905	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
80.526	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
80.382	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
79.866	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
79.843	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
79.841	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
79.467	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
79.097	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
79.019	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
79.004	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
78.998	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
78.646	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
78.643	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
78.529	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
78.260	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
77.894	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
77.003	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
76.934	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
76.906	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
76.551	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
76.010	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
75.970	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
75.824	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
75.611	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
74.845	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
74.748	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
74.705	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
74.473	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
74.046	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
74.007	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
73.652	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
73.166	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
72.928	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
72.421	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
72.415	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
71.993	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
71.916	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
71.861	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
71.809	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
71.775	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
71.755	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
71.427	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
71.051	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
70.576	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
70.019	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
69.752	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
68.543	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
68.307	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
67.976	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
67.881	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
67.461	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
67.453	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
67.345	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
66.672	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
66.393	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
66.026	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
64.575	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
64.173	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
63.833	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
63.705	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
62.739	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
62.652	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
61.934	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
61.843	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
60.350	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
60.285	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
60.238	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
59.426	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
58.770	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
58.549	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
58.523	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
58.338	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
58.052	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
57.855	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
57.473	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
57.325	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
57.222	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
56.982	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
56.808	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
56.527	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
56.335	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
56.195	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
56.107	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
55.907	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
55.778	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
55.414	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
55.124	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
54.903	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
54.850	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
54.617	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
54.608	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
54.570	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
54.300	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
53.818	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
53.407	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
53.313	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
52.450	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
52.189	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
52.148	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
51.826	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
51.032	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
50.978	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
50.954	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
50.946	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
50.872	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
50.530	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
50.438	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
50.379	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
49.770	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
49.767	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
49.453	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
48.649	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
48.547	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
48.413	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
48.403	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
47.802	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
47.714	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
47.354	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
47.206	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
47.021	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
46.779	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
46.136	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
45.835	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
45.071	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
45.035	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
44.633	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
44.138	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
43.923	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
43.776	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
43.700	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
43.534	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
43.188	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
42.705	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
42.431	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
41.689	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
41.164	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
40.506	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
40.501	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
40.354	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
40.343	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
40.331	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
40.072	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
39.912	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
39.842	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
39.362	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
39.257	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
39.158	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
39.095	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
38.601	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
38.376	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
37.959	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
37.737	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
37.677	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
37.164	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
36.958	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
36.908	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
36.779	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
36.542	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
36.394	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
36.262	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
35.998	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
35.580	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
35.560	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
35.539	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
35.363	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
35.288	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
34.951	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
34.901	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
34.542	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
33.609	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
33.425	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
33.368	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
33.173	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
33.034	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
33.020	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
32.984	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
32.384	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
31.642	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
31.123	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
30.963	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
30.612	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
30.572	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
30.509	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
30.199	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
30.147	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
30.117	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
30.054	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
29.021	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
28.603	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
28.546	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
28.503	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
28.231	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
27.473	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
27.291	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
27.077	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
26.635	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
26.231	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
26.091	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
25.912	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
25.679	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
25.502	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
25.465	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
24.955	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
24.672	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
24.363	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
24.257	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
24.119	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
23.984	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
23.952	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
22.976	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
22.899	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
22.699	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
22.437	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
22.282	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
22.245	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
21.849	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
21.742	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
21.575	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
21.399	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
20.975	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
20.944	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
20.368	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
20.032	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
19.594	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
19.516	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
19.270	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
19.207	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
19.114	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
18.823	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
18.790	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
18.640	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
18.487	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
18.033	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
17.989	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
17.393	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
17.307	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
17.060	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
16.982	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
16.780	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
16.519	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
16.501	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
16.081	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
15.548	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
15.510	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
15.495	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
15.384	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
15.159	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
14.429	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
14.024	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
13.861	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
13.845	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
13.531	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
13.082	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
12.963	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
12.644	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
12.316	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
12.238	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
12.172	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
12.165	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
12.070	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
11.678	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
11.633	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
11.133	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
10.688	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
10.489	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
10.488	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
9.941	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
9.935	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
9.757	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
9.411	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
9.157	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
9.073	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
8.921	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
8.889	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
7.784	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
7.760	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
7.732	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
7.705	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
7.680	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
7.212	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
7.135	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
6.977	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
6.575	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
6.384	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
6.323	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
5.974	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
5.972	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
5.740	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
5.454	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
5.413	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
5.282	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
3.655	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
3.472	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
3.402	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
3.259	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
3.231	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
3.227	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
2.932	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
2.911	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
2.876	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
2.732	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
2.653	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
2.206	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
1.942	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
1.932	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
1.833	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
1.691	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
1.088	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
1.070	Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?	Binary
0.847	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
0.675	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
0.434	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
0.387	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
0.372	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
0.176	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
0.168	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
0.067	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
0.060	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
-0.566	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
-0.574	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-0.786	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-1.398	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-1.531	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
-1.548	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-2.771	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-5.039	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-5.717	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
-6.195	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
-6.974	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-6.993	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
-7.506	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-7.608	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-7.664	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-7.834	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-7.906	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
-8.223	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-9.635	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
-10.327	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-11.611	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
-11.965	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-12.099	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-12.195	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
-13.640	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
-13.663	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
-16.614	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
-16.723	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
-16.724	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
-16.939	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-19.532	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
-19.814	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
-19.840	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-21.100	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-21.179	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-26.478	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
-29.735	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-29.906	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-30.554	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-32.407	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-34.482	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-38.542	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-39.193	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
-39.559	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-40.917	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-41.407	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-43.392	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-43.702	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-47.455	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-47.461	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-47.918	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-53.634	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-55.348	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-56.778	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
-64.917	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-65.339	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
-66.823	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
-69.408	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-71.268	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-72.418	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-73.832	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
-82.800	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-87.654	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-109.282	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-131.820	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-136.078	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-159.093	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-162.108	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-177.282	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-193.873	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-227.313	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous