datscilly

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.575	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
136.638	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
135.083	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
133.654	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
107.795	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
106.273	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
81.126	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
80.981	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
80.089	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
79.771	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
68.915	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
66.787	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
62.561	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
59.167	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
57.857	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
55.241	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
52.118	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
51.210	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
50.513	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
47.503	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
47.258	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
46.525	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
46.483	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
45.057	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
45.003	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
44.938	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
44.922	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
43.467	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
43.410	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
42.001	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
41.132	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
40.866	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
40.810	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
40.014	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
39.036	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
38.822	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
37.131	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
36.846	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
35.474	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
35.370	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
35.102	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
34.363	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
34.022	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
33.155	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
32.780	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
32.606	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
31.711	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
31.621	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
31.410	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
31.298	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
31.190	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
30.231	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
29.999	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
29.630	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
29.623	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
29.283	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
29.206	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
28.517	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
28.277	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
28.218	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
27.878	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
27.869	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
27.502	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
27.391	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
27.247	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
26.793	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
26.541	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
26.053	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
25.638	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
25.586	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
24.673	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
24.666	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
24.532	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
23.627	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
23.606	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
23.528	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
23.155	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
23.111	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
22.639	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
22.267	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
22.232	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
21.552	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
21.524	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
21.346	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
21.097	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
21.021	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
20.750	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
20.732	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
20.706	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
20.611	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
20.436	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
20.115	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
19.776	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
19.502	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
19.474	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
19.066	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
18.752	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
18.456	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
18.305	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
18.183	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
17.562	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
17.549	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
17.480	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
17.438	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
17.430	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
17.430	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
17.284	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
17.273	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
17.209	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
17.151	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
17.059	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
16.983	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
16.690	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
16.390	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
16.351	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
16.322	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
16.310	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
16.277	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
16.205	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
16.124	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
15.997	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
15.928	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
15.833	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
15.751	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
15.714	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
15.455	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
14.955	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
14.900	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
14.660	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
14.563	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
14.493	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
14.474	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
14.448	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
14.358	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
14.237	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
14.151	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
13.882	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
13.843	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
13.820	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
13.752	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
13.650	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
13.412	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
13.332	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
13.057	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
13.019	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
12.871	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
12.841	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
12.838	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
12.552	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
12.546	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
12.473	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
12.326	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
12.255	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
12.140	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
11.871	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
11.719	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
11.675	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
11.655	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
11.417	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
11.281	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
11.142	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
11.137	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
11.035	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
10.813	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
10.711	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
10.508	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
10.498	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
10.044	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
10.038	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
9.994	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
9.749	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
9.693	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
9.668	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
9.662	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
9.645	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
9.592	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
9.434	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
9.372	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
9.354	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
9.266	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
9.091	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
8.954	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
8.908	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
8.907	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
8.842	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
8.787	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
8.767	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
8.654	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
8.630	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
8.478	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
8.228	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
8.110	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
7.932	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
7.846	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
7.777	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
7.735	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
7.345	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
7.191	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
7.027	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
6.928	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
6.911	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
6.875	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
6.868	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
6.796	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
6.752	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
6.714	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
6.675	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
6.612	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
6.590	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
6.525	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
6.473	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
6.280	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
6.111	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
6.046	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
6.040	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
5.871	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
5.847	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
5.840	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
5.696	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
5.676	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
5.646	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
5.608	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
5.604	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
5.406	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
5.334	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
5.217	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
5.213	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
5.201	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
5.057	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
5.000	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
4.960	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
4.943	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.911	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
4.632	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
4.629	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
4.528	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
4.402	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
4.374	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
4.365	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
4.332	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
4.265	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
4.113	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
4.008	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
3.861	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
3.827	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
3.807	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
3.754	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
3.749	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
3.737	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.606	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
3.592	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
3.585	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.578	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
3.363	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
3.359	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
3.350	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
3.276	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
3.209	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
3.192	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
3.104	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
3.099	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
3.098	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
3.083	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
3.002	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
2.968	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
2.960	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
2.868	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
2.839	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
2.836	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
2.653	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
2.626	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
2.518	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
2.510	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
2.481	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
2.478	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
2.428	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
2.226	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
2.074	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
2.020	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
1.875	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
1.769	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
1.696	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
1.661	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
1.534	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
1.530	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
1.521	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
1.521	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
1.407	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
1.405	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
1.384	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
1.364	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
1.308	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
1.215	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
1.198	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
1.197	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
1.193	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
1.114	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
0.988	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
0.981	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
0.969	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
0.948	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
0.917	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
0.853	Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?	Binary
0.732	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
0.668	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
0.576	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
0.512	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
0.439	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
0.346	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
0.268	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
0.254	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
0.229	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
0.215	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.194	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
0.159	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
0.154	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
0.123	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
0.073	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
0.070	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
0.059	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
0.042	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
0.002	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-0.043	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-0.110	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
-0.123	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-0.154	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-0.305	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
-0.331	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-0.381	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
-0.405	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-0.434	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
-0.517	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-0.693	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
-0.698	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
-0.717	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
-0.723	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
-0.738	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-0.853	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
-0.857	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
-0.882	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
-0.937	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
-0.951	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
-0.952	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-1.228	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-1.333	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
-1.375	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-1.404	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-1.420	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-1.497	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
-1.516	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
-1.912	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
-1.966	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
-2.142	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
-2.155	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
-2.277	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
-2.286	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-2.336	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-2.561	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
-2.561	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
-2.843	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-2.953	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
-3.090	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
-3.279	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-3.329	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
-3.362	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
-3.434	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
-3.532	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
-3.567	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
-3.611	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
-3.616	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
-3.686	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
-3.762	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-4.056	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
-4.252	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
-4.277	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
-4.375	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-4.408	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
-4.494	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
-4.554	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-4.597	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
-4.607	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
-4.626	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
-4.700	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
-4.945	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
-5.177	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-5.324	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
-5.474	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-5.544	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-5.715	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
-6.055	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
-6.105	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-6.126	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-6.208	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
-6.535	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
-6.661	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
-6.683	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
-6.742	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
-7.326	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-7.388	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
-7.412	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-7.446	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
-7.518	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
-7.688	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
-7.938	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
-8.422	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-9.204	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
-9.290	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-9.983	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
-10.071	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
-10.292	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
-10.339	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-10.506	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
-10.863	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-11.333	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-11.385	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
-11.683	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
-11.947	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-12.107	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
-12.392	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
-13.023	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
-13.063	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
-13.894	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-14.127	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-15.773	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
-16.481	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
-17.007	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
-19.489	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
-19.672	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-20.654	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
-22.645	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-22.814	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-25.292	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-25.915	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
-26.856	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
-27.098	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-28.585	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-30.365	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-34.022	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-39.023	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-39.339	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-39.557	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
-47.076	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
-53.101	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-56.185	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
-58.224	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-81.711	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous