SimonM

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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17.67k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
219.228	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
199.093	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
173.987	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
164.473	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
154.003	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
137.294	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
135.333	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
132.309	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
132.103	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
130.942	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
130.848	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
128.696	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
127.886	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
124.465	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
120.591	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
120.246	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
117.254	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
117.223	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
114.281	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
114.208	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
111.707	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
111.623	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
111.287	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
108.824	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
108.534	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
108.476	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
107.392	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
106.718	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
106.525	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
105.437	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
105.375	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
104.704	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
104.640	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
102.606	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
101.456	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
101.027	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
100.636	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
99.744	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
99.582	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
98.330	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
97.288	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
96.569	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
95.997	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
95.913	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
95.477	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
95.305	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
95.161	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
95.046	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
95.024	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
94.881	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
94.874	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
94.780	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
94.762	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
94.258	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
93.862	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
93.640	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
92.908	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
92.540	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
91.862	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
91.620	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
91.583	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
91.446	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
91.128	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
90.260	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
90.184	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
90.164	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
89.836	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
89.803	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
89.758	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
89.383	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
89.235	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
89.223	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
89.220	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
89.059	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
88.895	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
88.726	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
88.563	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
88.502	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
88.127	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
87.979	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
87.716	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
87.649	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
87.179	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
87.059	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
86.968	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
86.879	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
86.826	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
86.815	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
86.799	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
86.567	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
86.344	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
86.148	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
85.765	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
84.897	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
84.737	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
84.702	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
84.585	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
84.483	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
84.441	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
84.287	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
83.955	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
83.757	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
83.535	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
83.411	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
83.340	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
83.301	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
83.271	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
83.170	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
82.993	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
82.888	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
82.553	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
82.379	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
82.366	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
82.179	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
82.047	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
81.315	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
81.291	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
81.156	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
80.659	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
80.608	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
80.314	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
80.287	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
79.961	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
79.627	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
79.206	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
79.152	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
79.144	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
79.005	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
78.823	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
78.409	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
77.781	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
77.766	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
77.591	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
77.497	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
77.343	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
77.337	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
76.991	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
76.963	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
76.531	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
76.499	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
76.437	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
76.275	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
76.077	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
75.777	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
75.553	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
75.328	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
75.099	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
75.062	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
74.869	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
74.811	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
74.733	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
74.286	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
73.479	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
72.831	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
71.845	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
71.573	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
70.877	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
70.839	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
70.788	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
70.760	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
70.464	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
69.997	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
69.921	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
69.546	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
69.239	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
68.984	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
68.754	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
68.610	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
68.600	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
67.981	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
67.844	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
67.691	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
66.753	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
66.126	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
65.609	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
65.464	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
64.699	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
64.520	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
64.517	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
64.305	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
64.250	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
64.071	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
63.485	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
63.482	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
63.277	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
63.262	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
63.235	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
63.047	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
62.597	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
61.755	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
61.648	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
61.294	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
61.225	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
60.979	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
60.475	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
60.080	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
60.069	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
59.843	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
59.809	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
59.060	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
58.988	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
57.921	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
57.666	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
57.568	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
56.948	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
56.763	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
56.576	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
56.506	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
56.189	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
55.847	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
55.534	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
55.348	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
55.217	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
55.011	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
54.983	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
54.834	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
54.744	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
54.643	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
54.524	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
53.638	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
53.535	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
53.192	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
52.915	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
52.906	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
52.700	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
52.572	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
52.504	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
52.433	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
52.372	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
52.173	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
51.860	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
51.515	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
51.287	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
51.262	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
50.863	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
50.201	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
49.739	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
49.510	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
49.452	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
48.901	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
48.183	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
48.167	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
48.094	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
47.821	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
47.773	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
47.643	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
47.183	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
47.099	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
47.083	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
46.675	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
46.136	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
46.058	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
45.741	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
45.600	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
45.405	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
45.376	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
45.120	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
43.529	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
43.451	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
43.396	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
42.139	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
42.132	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
42.098	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
41.687	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
41.581	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
41.284	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
40.606	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
40.084	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
39.839	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
39.448	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
38.751	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
38.745	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
37.861	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
37.310	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
37.304	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
37.298	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
36.599	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
36.278	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
35.506	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
35.227	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
35.163	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
34.464	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
34.118	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
33.700	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
33.627	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
33.407	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
32.632	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
32.021	When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
31.081	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
29.591	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
29.496	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
29.343	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
28.755	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
28.754	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
28.450	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
28.112	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
27.812	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
27.705	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
27.508	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
27.505	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
27.171	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
27.073	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
26.932	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
26.624	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
26.587	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
26.583	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
26.063	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
25.554	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
25.549	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
25.016	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
24.880	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
24.563	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
24.192	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
23.399	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
22.769	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
21.541	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
21.488	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
21.464	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
21.433	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
21.082	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
20.790	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
20.775	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
20.415	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
20.300	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
19.742	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
19.629	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
19.534	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
18.875	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
18.793	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
18.592	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
18.277	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
17.787	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
16.923	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
16.831	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
16.455	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
15.418	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
15.194	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
15.120	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
15.075	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
15.000	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
14.803	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
14.780	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
14.686	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
14.580	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
14.234	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
13.194	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
13.109	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
13.012	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
13.011	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
12.468	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
12.279	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
11.040	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
10.816	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
9.872	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
9.751	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
9.743	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
9.165	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
8.814	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
8.236	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
7.775	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
7.711	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
7.703	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
7.408	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
6.357	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
6.158	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.818	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
5.580	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
5.518	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
4.839	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
4.837	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
4.738	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
3.890	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
3.427	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
3.002	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
2.466	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
2.460	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
2.060	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
1.978	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
1.355	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
1.191	Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?	Binary
0.081	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
0.071	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-0.831	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
-1.935	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-2.037	Will Virginia announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021?	Binary
-2.716	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-2.850	In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?	Continuous
-3.069	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
-3.775	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-3.800	When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-4.100	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
-5.400	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-5.483	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
-5.701	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-7.020	When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK?	Continuous
-8.881	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-9.561	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-11.222	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
-12.423	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-13.752	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-14.166	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-14.341	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
-16.039	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-16.872	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
-16.960	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
-17.680	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
-17.973	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-18.326	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
-20.658	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-22.648	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-23.718	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-25.392	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-26.887	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-27.046	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
-27.385	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
-27.693	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
-28.839	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-29.083	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
-29.551	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-29.557	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
-32.295	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-34.297	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?	Continuous
-36.208	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-36.236	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-36.627	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-38.661	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-40.946	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-41.305	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
-41.980	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-42.621	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-44.920	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-45.948	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-46.926	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-47.584	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
-47.804	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
-48.191	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-48.383	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-49.215	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-49.457	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-49.898	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-53.298	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-55.914	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-56.418	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-59.623	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-60.603	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-64.581	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-66.129	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
-67.057	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-68.627	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
-72.482	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-73.793	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-76.609	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-86.283	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-91.175	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-95.507	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
-102.629	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-103.553	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-104.319	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
-110.692	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-115.260	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-119.575	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-123.498	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
-123.616	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
-127.629	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-129.941	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-130.460	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
-131.047	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-131.150	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-132.941	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-132.966	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
-133.295	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-143.903	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
-171.968	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-172.274	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-176.845	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-186.640	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
-292.841	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary