PepeS

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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16.78k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
209.478	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
153.331	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
148.750	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
144.244	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
138.252	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
138.156	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
138.116	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
138.059	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
136.063	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
133.197	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
129.898	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
128.044	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
127.646	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
123.844	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
119.586	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
117.202	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
115.262	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
113.143	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
112.029	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
110.064	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
108.803	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
108.625	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
107.770	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
107.482	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
106.875	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
106.865	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
106.288	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
104.928	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
104.125	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
102.683	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
100.143	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
97.852	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
97.353	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
96.964	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
96.528	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
96.419	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
96.171	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
95.811	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
95.756	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
95.511	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
94.546	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
93.349	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
93.263	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
93.235	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
92.700	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
92.540	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
91.530	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
91.281	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
90.297	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
90.185	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
89.760	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
89.196	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
89.077	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
88.740	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
88.683	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
87.985	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
87.502	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
87.024	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
86.926	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
86.898	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
86.119	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
85.834	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
85.806	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
85.796	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
85.690	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
85.611	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
85.606	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
85.297	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
85.047	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
85.016	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
84.760	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
84.552	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
83.949	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
83.578	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
83.200	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
83.122	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
83.007	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
82.761	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
82.671	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
82.579	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
82.324	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
82.250	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
81.233	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
81.164	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
80.586	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
80.302	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
79.382	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
79.191	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
79.190	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
79.176	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
79.000	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
78.827	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
78.756	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
78.755	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
78.402	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
78.102	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
77.233	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
76.527	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
76.503	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
75.687	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
75.588	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
75.509	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
75.044	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
74.422	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
74.301	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
74.143	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
74.071	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
73.966	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
73.854	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
73.394	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
72.734	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
72.473	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
72.030	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
71.524	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
71.269	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
70.817	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
70.066	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
69.864	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
68.871	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
68.845	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
68.817	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
68.633	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
68.517	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
68.235	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
68.158	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
67.838	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
67.414	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
67.137	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
67.074	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
67.006	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
66.962	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
66.871	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
66.437	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
66.336	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
66.255	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
66.236	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
65.992	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
65.309	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
65.234	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
64.065	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
63.808	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
63.668	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
63.453	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
62.836	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
62.635	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
62.565	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
62.533	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
62.395	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
62.394	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
62.081	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
61.590	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
60.936	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
60.554	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
60.048	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
59.946	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
59.789	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
59.578	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
58.487	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
57.888	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
57.884	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
57.662	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
57.623	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
57.579	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
57.286	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
56.930	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
56.879	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
56.717	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
56.714	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
56.567	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
56.379	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
56.176	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
55.734	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
55.692	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
55.684	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
55.432	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
55.335	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
55.220	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
54.777	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
54.690	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
54.621	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
54.305	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
53.809	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
53.517	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
53.345	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
53.281	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
53.014	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
52.739	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
52.214	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
52.193	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
52.035	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
51.790	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
49.641	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
49.004	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
48.912	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
48.446	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
48.380	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
48.079	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
47.936	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
47.808	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
47.623	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
47.220	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
46.812	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
46.718	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
46.422	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
46.337	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
45.592	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
45.227	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
44.878	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
44.780	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
44.550	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
44.143	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
43.966	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
43.646	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
43.327	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
43.321	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
43.230	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
43.074	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
42.616	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
42.482	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
42.041	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
41.882	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
41.851	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
41.450	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
41.191	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
41.138	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
40.291	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
40.114	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
39.709	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
39.659	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
39.258	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
39.076	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
39.038	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
38.639	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
38.475	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
38.185	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
38.002	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
37.811	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
37.635	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
37.183	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
36.980	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
36.914	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
36.907	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
36.894	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
36.877	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
36.602	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
36.563	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
36.456	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
35.579	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
35.277	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
35.121	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
35.035	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
35.008	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
34.891	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
34.773	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
34.431	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
34.029	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
33.877	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
33.519	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
33.031	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
32.918	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
32.876	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
32.807	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
32.597	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
31.035	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
30.882	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
30.671	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
30.252	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
29.692	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
29.691	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
29.417	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
28.944	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
28.635	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
28.270	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
28.143	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
28.051	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
28.018	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
27.725	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
26.707	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
26.538	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
26.276	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
25.719	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
25.689	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
25.395	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
25.084	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
24.077	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
24.040	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
23.881	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
23.708	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
22.990	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
22.973	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
22.671	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
22.349	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
21.907	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
21.681	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
21.672	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
21.019	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
20.956	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
20.946	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
20.712	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
20.655	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
20.051	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
19.629	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
19.549	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
19.447	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
19.034	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
18.964	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
18.807	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
18.758	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
18.727	When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
17.950	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
17.485	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
17.297	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
16.891	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
16.833	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
16.650	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
16.631	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
15.978	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
15.476	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
15.348	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
15.217	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
14.759	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
14.448	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
14.314	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
14.101	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
14.041	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
13.339	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
13.308	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
13.084	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
12.711	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
12.545	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
12.381	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
12.046	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
11.931	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
11.661	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
11.646	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
11.512	When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
11.481	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
10.575	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
10.481	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
10.018	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
9.966	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
9.896	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
9.476	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
9.119	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
8.835	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
8.767	When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK?	Continuous
8.067	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
7.606	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.290	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
6.595	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
6.411	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
6.109	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
6.086	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
6.079	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
6.028	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
5.906	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
5.867	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
5.595	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
5.501	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
5.445	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
5.143	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
4.678	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
4.534	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
3.919	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
3.736	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
3.479	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
3.456	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
3.395	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
3.182	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
2.826	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
2.779	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
2.711	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
1.992	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
1.866	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
1.816	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
0.449	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
0.310	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
0.157	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
0.058	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
-	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
-0.370	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
-0.776	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
-1.489	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
-2.237	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
-2.246	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-2.253	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-2.317	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
-2.805	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
-3.604	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
-4.129	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-5.603	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-5.933	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
-6.335	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
-6.449	In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?	Continuous
-6.824	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-8.047	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-8.368	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-8.687	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-9.345	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-9.645	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-10.688	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
-10.760	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
-12.033	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
-12.172	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
-12.321	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-13.256	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
-13.944	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-14.063	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-17.406	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-18.418	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
-18.531	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-19.436	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
-20.695	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-20.780	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
-21.172	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
-21.986	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-24.504	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-25.612	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-26.466	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
-29.220	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-29.565	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?	Continuous
-30.306	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
-31.679	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-32.396	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
-32.399	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-33.395	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-35.516	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-35.660	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-36.974	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
-38.711	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-39.286	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
-39.489	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
-39.604	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-39.976	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
-40.013	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
-42.808	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-46.283	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-46.578	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-47.298	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
-47.485	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-48.487	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-48.921	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
-49.355	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
-50.443	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-52.302	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-52.863	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-53.505	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-53.976	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-57.097	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-65.699	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-66.162	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-69.075	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
-69.381	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-76.314	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-76.661	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
-81.712	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-87.815	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-91.775	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-117.385	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-122.227	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-130.269	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-139.757	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-219.130	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-281.385	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary