SimonM

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

12.64	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
131.148	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
128.233	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
114.997	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
114.269	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
113.270	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
112.793	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
105.453	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
99.909	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
96.451	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
90.736	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
86.652	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
83.614	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
83.289	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
80.024	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
77.313	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
77.152	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
74.917	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
72.827	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
72.224	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
69.403	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
66.712	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
65.673	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
64.279	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
61.807	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
56.919	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
55.361	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
53.013	How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
49.182	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
47.355	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
46.930	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
45.191	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
44.121	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
43.830	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
43.400	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
42.979	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
42.766	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
41.981	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?	Continuous
41.684	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
41.644	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
39.961	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?	Continuous
39.644	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
38.231	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
37.814	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
37.758	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
37.526	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
37.089	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
36.211	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
34.942	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
34.115	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
33.768	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
32.754	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
32.152	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
31.055	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
30.406	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
30.313	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
30.304	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
30.219	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?	Continuous
29.437	When will Sabaton release their tenth album?	Continuous
29.300	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
29.142	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
29.071	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
28.945	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 11 September?	Continuous
28.752	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
28.615	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
28.260	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
28.256	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
28.174	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
28.164	Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?	Binary
28.157	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
28.011	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
27.875	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
27.830	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
27.783	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
27.536	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
27.353	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
27.151	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
27.061	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
27.052	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
26.956	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
26.881	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
26.871	What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
26.805	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
26.717	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
26.591	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
26.395	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
26.365	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
26.320	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
26.206	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021?	Continuous
26.127	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
25.966	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
25.955	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?	Continuous
25.847	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
25.386	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
25.255	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
25.169	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
24.999	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
24.760	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
24.581	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
24.519	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
24.454	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
24.271	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
24.229	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
24.219	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
24.010	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
23.739	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
23.637	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
23.218	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
22.859	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
22.836	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
22.403	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
22.128	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
21.840	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
21.660	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
21.516	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
21.314	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
21.309	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
21.290	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
21.152	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
21.140	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
21.035	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
20.956	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
20.816	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
20.784	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
20.457	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
20.187	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
20.149	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?	Continuous
19.744	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
19.716	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
19.610	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
19.510	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 27 August?	Continuous
19.469	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
19.399	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
18.855	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
18.793	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
18.793	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
18.525	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
18.521	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
18.494	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
18.480	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
18.440	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
18.129	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
18.059	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
18.020	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
18.019	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
18.003	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
17.622	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
17.530	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
17.407	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
17.351	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
17.171	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
17.153	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
17.139	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
17.090	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
16.891	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
16.836	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
16.659	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
16.574	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
16.538	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
16.536	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
16.448	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
16.279	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
16.271	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
16.133	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
16.130	What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
16.110	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
15.950	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
15.945	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
15.944	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
15.898	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
15.882	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
15.840	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
15.836	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
15.760	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
15.694	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
15.560	In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?	Continuous
15.399	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
15.326	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
15.281	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
15.278	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?	Continuous
15.060	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
15.056	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
15.009	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
14.988	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
14.852	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
14.709	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
14.592	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
14.582	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
14.557	When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK?	Continuous
14.497	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
14.469	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
14.454	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
14.275	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
14.222	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
14.213	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
14.182	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
14.176	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
14.162	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
14.104	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
13.984	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
13.922	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
13.818	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
13.817	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
13.651	When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
13.563	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
13.534	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
13.348	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
12.899	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
12.897	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
12.873	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
12.779	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
12.748	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
12.686	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
12.617	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
12.613	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
12.571	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
12.458	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
12.405	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
12.276	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
12.207	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
12.195	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
12.037	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
11.498	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
11.497	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
11.457	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
11.384	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
11.377	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
11.322	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
11.312	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
11.237	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
11.173	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
11.076	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
11.027	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
10.958	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 28 August?	Continuous
10.949	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
10.828	What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
10.800	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
10.692	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
10.566	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
10.539	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
10.410	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
10.091	What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?	Continuous
10.054	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
10.031	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
10.020	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
9.823	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
9.796	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
9.696	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
9.671	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
9.550	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
9.379	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
9.284	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
9.259	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
9.250	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
9.240	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
9.078	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
8.921	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
8.873	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
8.868	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
8.851	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
8.602	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
8.586	What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?	Continuous
8.544	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
8.502	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
8.260	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
8.236	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
8.207	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
8.207	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
8.194	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
8.154	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
8.149	How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
8.050	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
8.045	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
7.987	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
7.933	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
7.898	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
7.896	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
7.738	What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?	Continuous
7.720	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
7.680	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
7.633	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.628	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
7.441	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.390	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
7.368	Will Virginia announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021?	Binary
7.308	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
7.281	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
7.230	When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?	Continuous
7.081	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
7.029	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.016	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
7.003	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
6.915	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
6.909	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?	Continuous
6.870	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
6.721	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
6.494	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
6.381	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
6.346	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
6.316	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
6.279	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
6.273	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
6.267	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
6.247	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
6.200	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
6.153	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
6.153	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
6.123	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
6.108	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
6.057	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
6.038	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
6.032	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
5.991	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
5.933	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
5.753	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
5.698	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
5.671	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
5.649	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
5.638	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
5.591	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
5.501	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
5.481	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 11 September?	Continuous
5.467	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
5.420	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
5.407	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
5.403	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
5.312	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.285	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
5.225	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
5.205	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
5.204	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
5.181	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
5.123	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
5.123	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
5.116	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
5.092	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
4.992	When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
4.975	For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
4.960	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
4.921	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
4.885	Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?	Binary
4.874	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
4.836	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
4.721	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
4.720	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
4.679	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
4.672	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
4.668	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
4.595	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
4.594	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
4.440	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.331	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
4.318	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
4.235	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
4.195	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
4.130	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
4.032	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
3.983	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
3.937	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
3.931	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
3.900	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.884	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
3.812	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
3.736	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
3.545	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?	Continuous
3.479	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
3.440	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
3.255	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
3.057	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
3.021	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
3.001	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
2.926	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
2.878	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
2.798	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
2.770	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
2.758	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
2.744	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
2.685	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
2.676	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
2.664	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
2.555	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
2.520	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
2.439	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
2.425	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
2.418	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
2.400	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
2.352	What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?	Continuous
2.344	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
2.302	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
2.048	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
2.012	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
1.958	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
1.906	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
1.803	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
1.772	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
1.755	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
1.743	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?	Continuous
1.735	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
1.733	What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?	Continuous
1.657	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
1.533	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
1.445	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
1.336	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
1.315	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
1.314	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
1.313	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
1.309	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
1.260	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
1.217	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
1.064	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
1.021	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
0.958	Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?	Binary
0.957	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
0.873	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.801	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
0.666	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
0.576	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
0.537	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.528	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.412	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.252	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
0.099	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
0.092	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
-0.020	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
-0.391	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-0.454	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
-0.474	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
-0.512	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?	Continuous
-0.570	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
-0.585	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
-1.728	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-1.933	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
-1.985	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
-2.070	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021?	Continuous
-2.153	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September?	Continuous
-2.583	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-3.042	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-3.620	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
-4.705	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-5.172	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
-6.090	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-7.501	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
-8.274	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
-8.595	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-8.794	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
-8.970	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-9.788	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
-14.273	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?	Continuous
-15.259	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-16.777	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-18.448	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
-18.719	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
-19.625	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
-19.692	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-21.424	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-23.514	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
-24.785	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-26.087	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-27.885	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
-30.480	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
-33.259	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-35.436	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-39.608	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
-44.120	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
-45.916	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-47.669	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
-52.016	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-60.840	Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?	Binary
-61.176	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-66.578	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-75.422	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-80.656	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
-85.347	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-109.540	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-116.944	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?	Continuous
-142.427	When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-151.620	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
-170.043	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous